A friendly Finance Director once reminded me that his sole business motto was ‘No surprises!’
I think I responded to the effect that, surely, good surprises were an exception. He was not impressed. Apparently, not all good news withstands scrutiny; good is not always as good as you thought, and unexpected good news may mean you don’t really understand your business.
The paradox of uncertainty in democracies
At a global level, 2025 is a year of immense uncertainty.
Politically, a Trump presidency is, by definition, the opposite of what my Finance Director prescribed. It seems that the only certainty is that the new President will be unpredictable.
There is a good reason why the financial markets, social media oligarchs, federal/state bureaucracies and even foreign governments are all hedging their bets, in case Trump does what he says he’ll do. Or does the exact opposite!
These are stakeholders anxious about surprises!
A paradox of Western democracies is that people like to think they vote for change. In reality, they worry about uncertainty.
One of the reasons why the current British Government has found itself in trouble is the reaction to the Chancellor’s announcement on withdrawing the winter fuel allowance.
Although many would support the decision in principle, and others oppose it as fervently, I guess that the real damage was done in the way it emerged ‘out of the blue’. It was not in the Manifesto. No senior Labour figure had mentioned it. And it was not as if it had been preceded by an “OMG, look at the black hole we’ve discovered – we’ll have to do something unexpected …” moment. That came later!
Lessons from government missteps
Governments often provide case studies on how to screw up communications by inadequately preparing the ground with key stakeholders. The impact of inheritance tax changes on small farmers is another topical case in point.
But that’s no reason why other organisations – and professional stakeholder relations professionals should not take my Finance Director’s advice seriously.
Practical steps to avoid surprising stakeholders
This is what it means in practice:
- Understand what ‘no surprises’ means
It is a subjective, not an objective test. In other words, the surprise means something the stakeholder was not expecting. Forget what the rest of the world is thinking. What matters is whether that individual/group was anticipating the news or development you are going to announce.
Secrets are allowed, though they need to be managed with care, and if you provide information to some stakeholders but not others, there has to be a defensible logic for doing so.
- Study your stakeholders’ expectations
It is so easy to assume that they all recognise the same realities. You may have relations with some in your stakeholder base who share the same information sources, read the same journals, follow the same social media influencers or meet industry colleagues on a regular basis. However, this is not foolproof, and stakeholders will vary in the amount of contextual insights they possess. It often depends on how critical you are to them.
In general, the more they are impacted by your actions and policies, the more clued-up you can expect them to be. But it’s not an exact science. One can be caught out and discover that some stakeholders are still surprised, even though you might have reasonably expected them to have anticipated what would happen!
- Get better at Impact Assessment
The complex interdependencies of the modern world mean that unforeseen consequences lie everywhere. Senior Managers may be good at seeing the big picture, but it often takes ground-level staff to predict detailed implications for the way people work.
Your stakeholders may respond positively to one of your initiatives in principle but be dismayed by details they hadn’t expected or noticed. In absorbing the surprise element, they may be disappointed that you hadn’t warned them about it. So, it pays to assess the impacts thoroughly.
- If the surprise is inevitable, acknowledge it
Using a simple formula such as “We appreciate you were not expecting this …but …” can make a difference. What often offends is not the substantive effect of whatever bad news you are communicating, but the damage done to your relationship.
It is the disappointment that leads stakeholders to conclude “Shame they didn’t value/understand us enough to realise we would be unhappy and warn us…”
Studies have repeatedly shown that stakeholders want a stable relationship based on mutual trust and a recognition of where you agree… and where you don’t.
In simple terms, both parties need to know where they stand. Are we best friends? Are we friends just some of the time? Are we adversaries? Are we merely indifferent to each other? Maybe, what do we both want from this relationship?
These can be tough questions when addressed to a small number of established contacts. What happens when you have hundreds or thousands of stakeholders?
Managing communication at scale
Leveraging technology for Stakeholder Management
Modern systems allow the scalability of tools like sentiment analysis to help assess your relationship. They can also group stakeholders with similar characteristics and manage large volumes on a dynamic project with frequent changes in stakeholders.
They facilitate management by exception. So, if you are announcing something that will be welcomed by 90% of them, you can more easily identify the 10% for whom it might be an unwelcome surprise.
The art of delivering good news
Finally, let’s return to ‘good news’ surprises!
My Finance Director friend is not quite right, and there are times when joy is unconfined at a particular piece of news. However, communications experts will tell us that there are right and wrong ways to announce such developments. Over-hyped narratives and excessive self-congratulations antagonise many who realise that the next announcement may not be the same cause for celebration.
If you aim to cultivate an image of being professional and aware of your stakeholders’ concerns and anxieties, you must invest in thoughtful communications and tailor your messages to be as appropriate as possible.
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